Are ten thousand yuan coupons useful?Are you ready for retaliatory consumption?Experts say so!
As one of the “troikas” driving the growth of the national economy, consumption has been the main “booster” for economic growth for six consecutive years.However, due to the impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, consumption was hindered.Data released recently by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first two months of this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods (hereinafter referred to as social zero overall) declined by 20 each year.5%. In recent days, many cities have “sponsored” to promote consumption.Nanjing uses a multi-variable online shaking method to publicly release 50 million electronic consumer coupons, covering catering consumption, book consumption, sports consumption and many other aspects. Has the epidemic suppressed consumption?What is the subsequent trend of the consumer market?During the epidemic, is a certain new trend of consumption worthy of attention?Will the retaliatory consumption appear after the epidemic is over?In response to consumer-related issues of public concern, Sauna and Yeewang interviewed Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, Fu Yifu, a senior official of Suning Financial Research Institute, and Zhang Wei, chief macro officer of Kunlun Health Asset Management. Sauna Night Net: From January to February of this year, the company’s zero expansion has dropped by 20 every year.5%, how do you view this decline? Zhao Ping: The company’s zero-volume data basically meets my expectations and can reflect the impact of the epidemic on consumption and the characteristics of current consumption.The epidemic affects the consumption of services such as culture, tourism, sports, and some catering industries, as well as retail and other commodities, and then affects all retail formats.Among them, the consumption growth of supermarkets, hypermarkets, vegetable shops and e-commerce platforms is better. Social zero budget mainly represents commodity consumption.Among them, the operating income of catering enterprises accounts for about 11%, and the rest is the retail sales of commodities.Among retail sales, the retail industry contributes more than 75%, and the remaining 25% is composed of retail sales of commodities from other industries.The loss of operating income in the service industry has not been returned to the zero-scale statistics of the company, so the decline is different from some people’s feelings. Fu Yifu: The zero-scale decline in the first two months of this year is in line with my expectations.According to the facts of previous years, the Golden Week will be ushered in the January and February because of the long holiday blessing of the Spring Festival, but this year the Spring Festival just caught up with the spread of the epidemic, and some people do not go out.The industries under consumption were hit by shocks. Zhang Wei: It was gradually expected, but better than expected.Fundamentally, the epidemic situation first affected the tertiary industry, and the time for alternate resumption of work delayed the spread of the situation to the secondary industry.During the epidemic, emergency isolation policies were adopted everywhere, and almost all offline businesses were affected. People ‘s consumption habits must be changed from offline to online, which cannot be a blow to traditional consumption.Judging from the consumption data released this time, food, beverages, Chinese and Western medicine gradually turned positive in the first two months, and gold and silver jewelry, automobiles, furniture, and clothing fell the most, in line with the consumption habits during the epidemic. Sauna Night Net: How to view the subsequent trend of the consumer market? Zhao Ping: The epidemic is not over yet, so some consumer demand will be suppressed, certain scales of dinner, cultural and sports activities, etc.But after the epidemic is over, consumption will inevitably return to its normal growth trajectory. Based on the experience of the SARS period, I judge that the impact of the epidemic on consumption may be higher than the impact on GDP.In 2003, the GDP growth rate was 10.0%, an increase of 0 from the previous year.9 digits, but the company ‘s growth rate is only 9.1%, a decrease of 2 from the previous year.Seven digits, even lower than the GDP growth rate of the year. First of all, I think the recovery of the entire macro economy will be faster than that of consumption.Also referring to the SARS period, although the growth rate of the zero volume of the company decreased in 2003, the growth rate returned to 13.3%.Therefore, after this epidemic complex, it may take 3-6 months for consumption to gradually return to the normal growth range. Fu Yifu: The epidemic has put pressure on the growth of the consumer market.However, the negative growth of social zero spending does not mean that the consumption of residents is weak. Many people’s consumer demand has only been delayed and has not disappeared. After SARS in 2003, social consumption ushered in a clear and rapid rebound.In addition, the economic strength and economic environment of developing countries are completely different from 2003. At present, the overall per capita GDP has exceeded 10,000 US dollars. From this perspective, we are actually closer to the international high-income countries.At the same time, the average Internet in 2003 was still in the enlightenment stage, but now online shopping, live broadcasting, online education, online medical care, etc. have developed and become more comprehensive and thoroughly penetrate the consumer’s life scene. Therefore, after the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is completely controlled, social consumption will usher in a considerable rebound.At the same time, the resumption of production at the production end is being promoted in an all-round way. If we take some better preventive measures, the gradual consumption data should not be very bad, and even the original expectations can be achieved. Sauna Nightnet: Will poor consumer performance put pressure on the overall internal economic development?Can you increase the investment in new infrastructure? Fu Yifu: The new infrastructure is different from the traditional “Tie Gongji”. The new infrastructure has more digital attributes, including 5G infrastructure, big data centers, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet. In the final analysis, it is to lay the foundation for the digital transformation of the entire national economy. Today’s investment can be transformed into future demand. Through the comprehensive advancement and maturity of the new infrastructure, in the future, the corresponding fields will generate many new consumer demands.Taking 5G as an example, its advantages include high speed, low latency, and massive connections. This technology can not only meet the traditional needs of users to watch ultra-clear videos, but also match more scenarios, such as intelligent manufacturing, medical devices, andDriving, etc. However, the new infrastructure will still cost from investment to landing, so it may not be able to quickly make up for the downturn in consumption during the epidemic, but in the future will lead to more new consumer demand and promote the continued development of the entire economy. Zhang Wei: Affected by the epidemic’s work stoppage and production stoppage, the GDP gap in the first quarter of this year is expected. From the perspective of the “troika” that drives the economy, consumption and foreign trade will definitely be affected.Is investment. The consumption pattern during the epidemic showed an obvious “offline to online”. This does not mean that the entire consumption data was shifted. The panic about the epidemic increased the residents’ intention to “hoard goods” for daily necessities.So we see that food and Chinese and Western medicine showed good growth momentum from January to February.Relatively low ranking cars, furniture and other projects are expected to have a latecomer advantage under policy encouragement.At present, the National Development and Reform Commission has actively promoted the consumption of passenger cars, and I believe that it will increase in the middle of the year.Furniture, architectural decoration, etc., are also expected to rebound, driven by the purchase of new houses. Sauna Night Net: How to view the accelerating trend of online consumption during the epidemic?Can the trend continue after the epidemic is over?What are the new consumption trends during the epidemic? Zhao Ping: The epidemic has further strengthened consumers’ online consumption habits. At the same time, online channels during the epidemic have also become an important channel for many businesses to avoid risks and increase operating income. In general, from the demand side, the epidemic has strengthened consumers’ online shopping habits, thus laying a demand foundation for the innovative development of online consumption after the epidemic. From the perspective of the supply side, the epidemic situation has further promoted a new model of supply-side retail. The emergence of new formats will help the online supply side to better meet the needs of consumption upgrades.A pattern of double upgrades in supply and demand will be further formed to promote each other, thereby forming a virtuous circle for the future growth of online consumption. In addition, there were several new consumption trends during the epidemic.First of all, the epidemic has strengthened people’s health awareness, so even after the epidemic, people’s demand for public health products will exceed the above, thus creating new consumption growth points. Basically, people’s hygienic requirements for catering, takeaway and other related foods will be further improved, which will force the food production industry and the catering takeout industry to further develop. In addition, the epidemic has caused department stores and shopping malls to be queer, but supermarkets, vegetable shops, and warehousing member stores have long queues, and the growth rate of online fresh sales is much higher than that of other commodities.The demand for necessities is rigid.This also requires fresh e-commerce and offline physical stores to accelerate innovation and development, and continue to provide higher quality products. For enterprises, to seize market opportunities, in addition to accelerating the development of online and offline integration, providing better high-quality goods is a very important innovation direction.Through supply chain management, the source of upstream procurement is tapped to ensure the supply of high-quality goods. In this way, even after the epidemic, this growth can continue. Fu Yifu: This outbreak is a possibility to accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries.During the epidemic, people’s outing activities decreased, and small and medium-sized catering enterprises were hit. If they want to survive, they must save themselves in addition to supporting preferential policies.Whether it is forced to touch the Internet, or cooperate with a more mature e-commerce platform to expand online business, the fundamental logic is to force itself to digitally transform. So, can this trend continue after the epidemic is over?After this time, the enterprise’s awareness of digital transformation has become stronger.After all, transformation requires a lot of capital investment, and the awareness of active transformation before was weak.But now they can. If they don’t restructure, companies may not.Therefore, the epidemic has accelerated the digital transformation trend of enterprises, and this trend is about to continue. In addition, new types of consumption, such as online education and online medical treatment, are expected to become a long-term sustainable consumption field in the future, because they truly capture the “pain points” of the majority of users.They are not only a convenient way to meet people’s needs during the isolation period, but also an important way to break through the education and uneven distribution of medical resources in the future. In fact, after the full commercial implementation of 5G in 2020, various current consumption scenarios are expected to usher in disruptive transformation, and new types of consumption such as online education and medical treatment will become more efficient and convenient, and penetrate more widely. Finally, the consumption of service categories represented by education and medical treatment has gradually replaced commodity consumption, which was originally an important direction for the upgrading of Chinese consumption. The ensuing experience has repeatedly proved this point. Zhang Wei: During the epidemic, online retailing clearly dominated, meeting the needs of epidemic prevention and control.In my opinion, even if the authority announces the release of the epidemic at some point in the future, people will not immediately relax their vigilance out of the need for prevention. After all, the incubation period of the new crown epidemic is too long.By then, online consumption will maintain a high profile within the launch. The epidemic has indeed changed the consumption habits of residents. It is completely “offline to online.” It is beyond the change of consumption goals. People’s consumption of basic daily necessities and medical protective products has improved, and personal hygiene habits have also been significantly improved. Sauna Night Net: Recently, Nanjing, Ningbo and other places issued consumption vouchers to residents. How do you view this kind of “burning money” to promote consumption conversion? Zhao Ping: Obtaining consumer vouchers is to supplement consumption to stimulate consumption and release demand.From past experience, the general consumption subsidy policy will drive consumption growth to a new high in the short term, especially in the areas mainly supported by consumer vouchers. However, consumer vouchers are not “inclusive”. They still need to be replenished elsewhere to generate consumer vouchers for the industries penetrated by the shock and gradually recover. At present, some short-term stimulus policies are needed to promote consumption, to compensate for the consumption demand that was blocked due to the impact of the epidemic, and thus accelerate the recovery of consumption.At present, some compensation policies adopted by some cities are reasonable and effective, but long-term subsidies are not advocated. Fu Yifu: There is no doubt that consumer vouchers have a positive effect on boosting residents ‘consumption and promoting economic growth.In addition, consumer vouchers can also improve the living conditions of low-income families, play a role in the transition period, and improve industry operations to drive production recovery. The epidemic has impacted offline consumption, especially in the catering, hotel, tourism and other service industries.At this time, Nanjing and other places distribute consumption vouchers for catering and rural tourism in a timely manner to guide the public to spend more in areas of interference and help improve the business conditions of businesses. However, although consumer coupons can sometimes improve consumers’ ability to pay at one time, they cannot fundamentally change consumers ‘expectations of the future increase in income. Out of the instinct to avoid risks, ordinary people often exceed the wait and see of holding coins.It means that once the consumption coupons are used up, it is difficult for some people to expect to withdraw the money in their pockets. Therefore, in the long run, boosting consumption requires effort in the following areas.On the demand side, efforts must be made to effectively increase the income level of residents, improve social security systems (especially rural areas), and improve infrastructure construction in cities and rural areas below the third line; on the supply side, efforts must be made to promote technological progress and increase production efficiency.Since then, the quality of commodities has been more optimized and the variety of commodities has increased, and the reduction of production costs has driven the reduction of commodity prices, thereby enabling Chinese to increase their own marginal consumption potential and stimulate consumption potential.In addition, government departments should also strive to develop a business environment for fair competition, promote the benchmarking of domestic consumer products against international standards, support companies in formulating new brand policies, strengthen supervision, improve intellectual property protection measures, and crack down on counterfeiting and shoddy. Zhang Wei: I don’t think that this consumption promotion model can play a role, but Nanjing’s choice of “difficult people” in the distribution of people still has a certain effect.For this problem, it is recommended to consider from the audience, rather than specific consumption categories. Obviously, the most important thing to promote consumption is to raise residents’ independent consumption expectations and make a fuss from the demand side.To promote consumption, we must consider where the residents’ most urgent needs are.When issuing consumer vouchers, it is also necessary to issue targeted payments to the “most pressing people” instead of “copter-like money”. Sauna Nightnet: Will there be retaliatory consumption after the epidemic is over? Zhao Ping: After the epidemic, consumption will rebound, but it will not reach the level of retaliatory consumption. The spread of the epidemic worldwide has led to a global economic recession that will inevitably have some impact on the Chinese economy.Although enterprises are currently resuming production in an orderly manner, if sales and profits before this year are to reach the level of last year, they will face huge challenges.In this case, the consumer’s income expectation will have an impact, and the long-term impact of the epidemic will release its consumer desire.Therefore, in the short term, consumers may release to a certain extent their suppressed appetite during the epidemic. At that time, the scale of consumption and the frequency of consumption will rebound, but it will soon return to a level that matches the expected income of consumers.Growth has entered a normal growth track. Fu Yifu: The SARS epidemic in 2003 ended, and social consumption ushered in a significant rebound. This just shows that the epidemic can make people’s needs disappear out of thin air, but only delayed.After the epidemic, many people still have intentions to consume, especially in the areas of catering, tourism, etc., which suffered a relatively large rebound.Consumption such as cultural performances will also pick up after the epidemic is over. However, this year’s tourism may not be back on track until the 11th Golden Week.Because even if the country declares the end of the epidemic, people may not go out with confidence at half past one. “Eleventh” is a relatively neutral time. Taken together, people do have some demand that is delayed, and everyone’s economic strength is stronger, living standards and income levels are better than before, so consumption can quickly return to the right track. Zhang Wei: The possibility of retaliatory consumption after the end of the epidemic is not ruled out.However, not all consumer products will usher in a strong rebound after the epidemic.After all, after a long period of self-protection, people’s awareness of protection will not suddenly disappear, and their vigilance for the “incubation period” will be appropriately retained.Therefore, I am afraid that the consumption of certain movie theaters in closed places will not usher in a retaliatory rebound in a short time.Expectations for the consumption of seasonal clothing and gourmet food are expected to be greatly improved. Sauna, Ye Wang, Pan Yichun, editor Wang Yu, Sun Yong proofreading Chen Diyan